However, it may still not change its stance on the policy rate as inflationary pressures are coming from high commodity prices.
The wholesale price-based inflation spiked to 12.54 per cent in October, mainly due to rise in prices of manufactured products and crude petroleum. WPI inflation has remained in double digit for the seventh consecutive month beginning April. Inflation in September this year was at 10.66 per cent, while in October 2020 it was at 1.31 per cent.
Retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.35 per cent in September from 7.27 per cent in the year-ago period as prices of vegetables and other items declined, according to government data released on Tuesday. The moderation in Consumer Price Index-based inflation is in line with the assessment of Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das who recently projected substantial softening of retail inflation. The CPI inflation was at 5.3 per cent in August and at 7.27 per cent in September 2020.
Hawkish tone likely to guard rupee from further slide
Retail inflation hit an eight-month high of 6.07 per cent in February, remaining above the RBI's comfort level for the second month in a row, while wholesale price-based inflation soared to 13.11 per cent on account of hardening of crude oil and non-food item prices, government data showed on Monday. The previous high for retail inflation was 6.26 per cent in June 2021. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation, which is taken into account by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) while deciding its monetary policy, rose mainly because of costlier food items, as per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
Punjab National Bank on Monday allayed concerns about its exposure to Adani companies and noted that its loans to the group are diversified into 8-9 companies, which are generating sufficient cash. Atul Kumar Goel, the bank's MD & CEO, in a post-earnings call said total exposure to Adani group, so far, stands at Rs 7,000 crore, of which Rs 2,500 crore is in the airport sector. He further said there is "no worry as the exposure is not very big" and that the bank is keeping an eye on the development that is taking place.
Since January 2021, the inflation rate in health has stood in the range of 6.08-8.44 per cent.
Tyre companies are stepping up on exports to offset declining volumes from domestic OEMs.
Leading automakers Maruti Suzuki India, Hyundai and Tata Motors reported a double-digit increase in dispatches to dealers in April as the demand remained robust especially for the sports utility vehicles. The country's largest car maker Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) said its domestic passenger vehicle wholesales rose 13 per cent to 137,320 units last month as against 121,995 units in April 2022. Sales of mini cars, comprising Alto and S-Presso, fell 18 per cent to 14,110 units as compared with 17,137 units a year ago.
After a record run in FY2022, when the brokerage industry is set to report over 30 per cent topline growth at around Rs 28,000 crore, the industry is set for a tepid growth next fiscal even though the outlook is stable, says a rating agency report. The market has been on a song since June 2020 when the first wave of the pandemic ebbed and since then it has had record run with the stock indices more than doubling since the Covid-19 mayhem in March 2020 and scaled new life-time highs since then. The market frenzy was also visible in the massive number of new investors coming to the equity market, as exemplified in the more than trebling of the demat accounts since April 2020.
Retail investors have put at least Rs 2,296 crore in listed companies facing proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). A median such-company had 16,163 retail investors as shareholders many of whom apparently have bought a stake on the hope of making money if the firm revives. They own a fifth of the total stake in the companies under consideration. The analysis looked at 75 listed firms for whom shareholding data was available for March 2022.
A looming global shortage of diesel in Europe presents India with more than one opportunity to profit from strong margins. A shortage of the fuel, a key contributor to inflation, has been exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, and western sanctions on Russian fuel supplies. The slowdown in natural gas supply means the West needs diesel to heat their homes this winter.
The wholesale price-based inflation in February rose to 13.11 per cent on hardening of prices of crude oil and non-food items, even though food articles softened. After two months of mild easing, WPI inflation accelerated in February and remained in double digits for the 11th consecutive month, beginning April 2021. WPI inflation last month was 12.96 per cent, while in February last year, it was 4.83 per cent. The rise in crude oil and natural gas prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, beginning February 24, has put pressure on the wholesale price index, even though food articles saw softening across categories of vegetables to pulses to protein-rich items.
The muted CPI inflation print at 5% earlier this week, followed by a similar WPI number released Wednesday, seems to have spurred India's central bank into action, is how the economists are reading into Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan's 25 basis point cut in repo rate.
Yes Securities, the broking and investment arm of Yes Bank, on Wednesday said the Supreme Court directive on loan moratorium due to pandemic has brought the much needed clarity and there will not be any financial impact on the banks as the compound interest waiver is to be reimbursed by the government. On its verdict on a batch of pleas seeking moratorium extension beyond August 31, 2020, the apex court on Tuesday said it is a policy decision, refusing to interfere with the Centre's and RBI's decision to not extend the loan moratorium beyond the limit. However, it observed that the benefit of moratorium should go to all set of borrowers irrespective of the loan amount and asked to refund any amount collected as penal interest and compound interest during March-August 2020.
With the stock coming under pressure, the MF holding value could have dropped to Rs 50 billion, back-of-the-envelope calculations show.
For the first time in 21 years, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will revise norms for investment portfolios of commercial banks to reflect changes in global standards on valuation and measurement, and progress in the domestic market. This could pave the way for banks to transition to the new accounting standards (Ind-AS). The outstanding investment portfolio of commercial banks was at Rs 45.84 trillion as of November 19 this year.
New Delhi's timing couldn't have been worse, both for India's fledgling electric vehicle (EV) sector and prospective electric bike buyers. It was hard to miss the perfect storm brewing for India's EV industry since early 2022. On one hand, you had several accidents involving battery fires that unnerved consumers; on the other, uncertainty had crept in over subsidies.
In the current financial year, the Centre released nearly Rs 1 lakh crore compensation to the states till September.
India always faces a Hobson's choice as far as feeding coal-fired generators goes - even if the government is reluctant to admit it. The country cannot do without shipping in the world's most polluting fuel from overseas. And it will continue to do so unless it decides to reduce demand by forcing citizens, farmers and businesses to live without electricity for part of the day, or use diesel generators to fire facilities.
According to Icra, domestic passenger traffic declined by 1.1 per cent in March, overall traffic saw a de-growth of 0.1 per cent in the month as international aircraft movement dipped by 1 per cent while domestic aircraft movement was flat.
According to the Icra report, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margin of its sample declined by 44 basis points on a YoY basis and 23 basis points on a quarter-on-quarter basis to 16.6 per cent.
Fitch Ratings has cut India's economic growth forecast to 8.7 per cent for the current fiscal but raised GDP growth projection for FY23 to 10 per cent, saying the second COVID-19 wave delayed rather than derail the economic recovery. In its APAC Sovereign Credit Overview, Fitch Ratings said India's 'BBB-/Negative' sovereign rating "balances a still-strong medium-term growth outlook and external resilience from solid foreign- reserve buffers, against high public debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors". The 'Negative' outlook, it said, reflects uncertainty over the debt trajectory following the sharp deterioration in India's public finances due to the pandemic shock.
The production of eight infrastructure sectors rose by 7.5 per cent in October on healthy performance by the segments of coal, natural gas, refinery products and cement, official data released on Tuesday showed. The output of eight core sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 0.5 per cent in October 2020, according to the data released by the commerce and industry ministry. Core sectors' growth stood at 4.5 per cent in September this year.
The output of eight core sectors jumped by 56.1 per cent in April mainly due to a low base effect and uptick in production of natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity, official data released on Monday showed. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 37.9 per cent in April 2020 due to lockdown restrictions imposed to control the spread of coronavirus infection. In March this year, the eight sectors had recorded a growth rate of 11.4 per cent.
The output of eight core infrastructure sectors grew marginally by 0.1 per cent in January, mainly due to growth in the production of fertiliser, steel and electricity. The core sectors had expanded by 2.2 per cent in January 2020, according to the provisional data released by the commerce and industry ministry on Friday. Coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, and cement recorded negative growth in January.
The financials of six privately held companies associated with Siddhartha show an increase in debt and falling ability to meet short-term obligations.
Like everything else, the structure of banks may change, and banks may depend more on digital technologies and artificial intelligence for dealing with both their customers and employees.
Growth has been under pressure since the lockdowns related to Covid-19 started and fresh prescription generations slowed.
India's gross tax collections soared to a record high of Rs 27.07 lakh crore in the fiscal year ended March 31, led by impressive growth in corporate tax and customs, taking the tax-to-GDP ratio to an over two-decade high of 11.7 per cent, Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj said on Friday.
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Declining prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation to 5.59 per cent in July, bringing it back within the RBI's comfort zone after two months, official data showed on Thursday. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had remained above 6 per cent during May and June. The government has mandated the RBI to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The CPI based inflation stood at 6.26 per cent in June 2021 and 6.73 per cent in July 2020.
Infra segment, refinery product impacted the most, even as contraction narrows in latest month.
The key demand drivers -- such as low home loan rates and income tax sops, particularly for affordable housing -- that supported the recovery in H2 FY2021, remain in place and will spur recovery again, feel experts.
Defying trends, the country's largest private sector lender, HDFC Bank, has shifted its asset mix significantly towards high-rated segments. As a result, its wholesale-to-retail mix has tilted heavily in favour of wholesale, even at the cost of margins. Further, it is even looking to ramp up its branch network, with an aim to service clients within a 1-2 km radius rather than the current 5-6 km radius.
While margins contracted by 30 basis points on y-o-y basis, they fell a sharper 120 basis points on a sequential basis to 16.8 per cent. Profitability was impacted adversely due to subdued demand, tepid realisations in commodity sectors, and negative operating leverage.
States may face a GST compensation shortfall of Rs 3 lakh crore in the next financial year, a situation that will force them to borrow more from the markets, says a report. The states may face a shortfall of Rs 2.7-3 lakh crore as Goods and Services Tax (GST) compensation from the Centre next fiscal. Out of that amount, the shortfall from cess collections will be at Rs 1.6-2 lakh crore, according to an Icra report released on Monday. In FY21, the states were facing a shortfall of Rs 1.1 lakh crore in GST compensation from the Centre but over 90 per cent of that amount has been cleared now.
The output of eight core infrastructure sectors contracted for the third month in a row by 1.3 per cent in December 2020, dragged down by poor show by crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel and cement sectors. The core sectors had expanded by 3.1 per cent in December 2019, according to the provisional data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Friday. Barring coal and electricity, all sectors recorded negative growth in December 2020. During April-December 2020-21, the sectors' output declined by 10.1 per cent against a growth rate of 0.6 per cent in the same period of the previous year.
While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
Analysts at rating agency ICRA say the debt level of the telecom companies is very high and the ecosystem for the premium band is not in place.
